State of the Nation

UK Trade & Industry is the arm of government with a brief to promote British companies and products. In the last few weeks, the two most senior civil servants in that department have both visited Lebanon and have explained that the efforts of HM government will be much more directed to assist in developing trade and investment in the growth markets (of which Lebanon with a reported annual GDP growth of 9% is certainly one) rather than the large but comparatively slower growth regions where most of the UK’s exports currently go (Europe and North America).

The British Lebanese Business Group – the BLBG – has been mentioned in a couple of earlier blogs. It’s a tradition that Her Majesty’s Ambassador to Lebanon addresses the group once a year.

The current ambassador, Her Excellency Frances Guy, has given a reception at her home for members of the group on the last three occasions and, in spite of the cuts in government spending, was able to make the same kind and generous offer this year.

Billed as a “state of the nation” speech, HE took us through the tensions in the region and in this specific country and gave her view of the ways in which these might develop and thus impact or present opportunities for business here. Questions were lively, broad ranging and responded to with candour and clarity.

While we all promised not to quote directly, it will come as no surprise that the questions of relations with the neighbours (Israel & Syria), the external influencers (KSA and Iran amongst others), Hezbollah and the impending indictments from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (investigating the assassination of the former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri) all got an airing. Rather less expected was an excursion into earthquake proofing of buildings.

Now this is my blog, and if anyone disagrees with my reading of the meeting, then please comment, but I’m going to give them anyway. Put simply the mood was, on the whole, more positive than negative, with a different feeling from the times when the government had collapsed, when the presidential chair was vacant and when civil disobedience produced no-go areas in down-town Beirut. Yes, it could all go pear-shaped, but no-one actually wants that to happen.

So what is the effect on doing business? “Do we re-stock or not?” “Do we invest or hold back?” are permanent questions in all lines of business, anywhere in the world, and it’s the business people who will ultimately answer these questions, not the governments and their diplomats. Let’s realize that growth in business comes from addressing growing markets, so if the GDP growth here really is as shown above and the mood is more positive ….. well it’s your money, you decide.